Break-even study — up-to-date snapshot

Recomputed on the live forward-test journal · 2026-06-20 · 508 resolved bracket trades with usable bar paths

Update (2026-07-01). This page is a dated snapshot. A later pre-registered, paired study on the clean validated population found that plain ride-to-target beats the bank-half/break-even rule by +0.041R per trade, and the paper book now runs ride-to-target. The MFE findings below (how far stop-outs ran green first) still stand as measured.

Read this first. This refresh is on the FULLER sample (508 path-backed trades, up from ~117 in the earlier version). The "stop-outs ran green first" pattern holds. But the old headline — BE-only flipping the book to +3.2R — does not survive the bigger sample: moving the stop to break-even still helps, but the book stays net-negative. Numbers below are the honest current read.

BE-only — at +1R move stop to break-even +21.3R

Moving the stop to break-even once a trade is +1R swings the book from −152.1R to −130.8R — a +21.3R rescue (−0.299R → −0.258R per trade). The management tweak is real and positive, but it does not turn a net-losing book into a winner: the entries themselves are the problem.

"Were we ever in the green?" — how far stop-outs ran first

Maximum favorable excursion (MFE) for the 416 trades that ultimately stopped out. How deep into profit they got before reversing.

reached green at all 94%390/416

> +0.25R 81%339/416

> +0.50R 65%271/416

> +1.00R 45%188/416

> +1.50R 30%123/416

> +2.00R 20%84/416

Win rate 18.1% (92/508) Sample span Jun 9 → Jun 19, 2026 Coverage 508/509 paths (1 lacked OHLCV)

Read-only analysis. Per-bar paths rebuilt from venue OHLCV; intrabar conflicts resolved adverse-first (break-even is never over-credited). "Green" / MFE-touch rates are TOUCHES at the wick, not guaranteed fills. Book R is gross of fees. The takeaway is unchanged in spirit and stronger in evidence: most losers DO go green first, so exit management matters — but on this fuller sample it mitigates the bleed rather than curing it. Not financial advice; no live changes made.